000
FXUS61 KOKX 221816
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
116 PM EST WED FEB 22 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A LOW
PRESSURE AREA APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT WITH A WARM FRONT
MOVING INTO THE AREA. THE WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH OF REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH BRIEF RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE AFTERNOON. A
COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...PUNCTUATED BY A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS FROM NYC AND POINTS EAST WILL CLEAR THE AREA
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ON THE
INCREASE TOWARD EVENING.
HIGHS ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR THE MID TO UPPER 50S NYC METRO AND
INLAND AREAS...TO THE LOWER AND MID 50S ELSEWHERE. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...THIS WELL ABOVE NORMAL...ABOUT 12 TO 15 DEGREES. GUSTY SW
WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES WITH
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE NEAR GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 MPH POSSIBLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND MOVES EAST OF THE
REGION BY THURSDAY MORNING. OMEGA INCREASES FROM 00Z TO 06Z
THURSDAY AND MOVES RAPIDLY EAST AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS ALONG WITH HIGH MOISTURE IN THE 1000 TO 700 MB LAYER. ZONAL
FLOW SO THIS WILL BE FAIRLY RAPIDLY MOVING WITHOUT MUCH
MEASURABLE QPF...MOSTLY LESS THAN TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH. BEST
DYNAMICS FROM 06 TO 12Z...SO POPS ARE IN HIGH END CHANCE TO
LIKELY. PCPN TYPE WILL BE MOSTLY RAIN CONSIDERING THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING AND STRENGTHENING TONIGHT...MAKING FOR TEMPS WELL
ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST PLACES.
CONDITIONS DRY OUT LATER THURSDAY MORNING WITH ZONAL FLOW AFTER
WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH OF THE AREA ALONG WITH TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPS
SIMILAR TO WED AND AGAIN MAV/MET BLEND USED. BOUNDARY LAYER NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AS DEEP WITH VERTICAL MIXING ONLY UP TO A LITTLE
BELOW 800 MB. CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A LOW MOVING NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES IN THE AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE RAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST DEEPENS. THEREFORE
HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS THAN THOSE OF WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ACTIVE PERIOD AS A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS IMPACT THE NORTHEAST...ONE FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE OTHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS FAR AS THE
END OF WEEK SYSTEM...MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A LONGWAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE US GRADUALLY SHARPENING AND
SLIDING TOWARDS THE EAST COAST DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. THIS
WILL HAVE A STRONG UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND
ROTATING INTO EASTERN CANADA. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS THOUGH IN THE
TIMING AND TO A LESSER EXTENT STRENGTH/TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW...DUE
TO THE NEEDED COMPLEX INTERACTION OF NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH.
AS A RESULT...OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO VARY
IN THEIR TRACK AND TIMING OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY AND THEN THROUGH THE AREA. EUROPEAN MODELS CONTINUE TO
PRESENT A SLOWER SOLUTION...WHILE NCEP MODELS MORE
PROGRESSIVE...AND CAN MODELS SORT OF IN BETWEEN. WITH THE
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY...HAVE MAINTAINED CONTINUITY WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.
BOTH FASTER AND SLOWER SOLUTION ARE POINTING TOWARDS OVERRUNNING
PCPN DEVELOPING THURSDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY
DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. LACK OF CAD AND TIMING OF PCPN POINTS TO
MAINLY RAIN...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF MIX OF SNOW/SLEET IS POSSIBLE AT
ONSET ACROSS FAR INTERIOR. HAVE CONTINUED LIKELY POPS FOR FRIDAY AS
A TRIPLE POINT LOW TRACKS NE SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
REGION. GREAT DEAL OF SPREAD IN TERMS OF TEMPS AND QPF...WHICH WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON EXACT TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE. A BRIEF END AS WINTRY
PCPN POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR INTERIOR ZONES IF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
SOUTH OF THE REGION.
STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED IN WAKE OF LOW PRESSURE
SOMETIME FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI NIGHT. IF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTH
OF THE REGION AND PORTIONS OF THE REGION GET WARM SECTORED...THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF SOLID WIND ADVISORY/MARGINAL HIGH WIND
WARNING WINDS IN THE WAKE OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. IF TRIPLE POINT
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO THE SOUTH...HIGH WIND WARNING POTENTIAL
DECREASES BUT STILL WIND ADVISORY WINDS. A DAYTIME PASSAGE WOULD
FAVOR STRONGER WINDS AS WELL. WILL ADDRESS WINDS IN HWO.
OTHERWISE...TROUGH AXIS GRADUALLY CROSSES EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH
SAT NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE. WINDY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF LOW
PRESSURE...WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHRA ACTIVITY IN DEEP
CYCLONIC FLOW. GRADUALLY CLEARING AND SUBSIDING WINDS SAT NIGHT AND
DRY THROUGH MON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
ANOTHER LOW LOOKS TO TREK TO THE NORTH DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
EITHER MON NIGHT OR TUES. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS
TIME AGAIN DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT. MAINLY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMING SOUTH BY TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPS
OVERNIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING NORTH OF THE
REGION.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS A CHANCE THAT GUSTS MAY BE MORE
OCCASIONAL THAN SUSTAINED. IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE.
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THU THROUGH MON...
.THU...WNW FLOW G20-25KT. VFR...QUICKLY BECOMING IFR OVERNIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES.
.FRI...COLD FROPA AS EARLY AS NOON OR AS LATE AS MIDNIGHT.
IMPROVING CIGS...G35-45KT POSSIBLE...AFTER COLD FROPA. LLWS
POSSIBLE PRIOR TO COLD FROPA.
.FRI NGT-SUN...VFR OR BECOMING VFR BY SAT AM. STRONG W-NW FLOW
G35KT THROUGH SAT. VFR SUN.
.MON...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SW WINDS HAVE INCREASED SEAS IN THE OFFSHORE OCEAN WATERS TO
AROUND 5 FT. MARGINAL GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT POSSIBLE ON THE
OCEAN...BUT THIS WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO AN INVERSION OVER THE
WATERS. OCEAN SEAS REALLY START TO BUILD UP TO 5 TO 7 FT BY
TONIGHT AFTER SOUTHERLY FETCH DEVELOPS AND CONTINUE THROUGH REST
OF SHORT TERM. RIGHT NOW...SCA IS OUT TO ADDRESS THIS. FOR TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY...IT WILL BE MAINLY A HIGH SEAS ISSUE ACROSS THE
OCEAN AS WINDS DECREASE IN THE EVENING WITH LESS MIXING EXPECTED.
THEREFORE HAVE SCA CONTINUING ACROSS OCEAN FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS AND SEAS THEN BEGIN INCREASING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH INCREASING E/SE FLOW AHEAD OF A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
SCA OR HIGHER CONDITIONS ARE THEN LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST SAT
NIGHT FOR ALL WATERS UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
SOLID POTENTIAL FOR GALES CONTINUE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...WITH LOW END
POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF NEAR SHORE STORM FORCE GUSTS IF WARM
FRONT WORKS NORTH OF THE WATERS. THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
DICTATE THE BEGINNING OF THE GALES. SEAS GREATLY INCREASE AS THE
WINDS INCREASE AS WELL...WITH A PERIOD OF 6 TO 12 FT SEAS ALSO
POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS FRI NIGHT...3 TO 6 FT ON LONG ISLAND
SOUND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
LESS THAN TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
1/4 TO 1/2 INCH RAINFALL POSSIBLE WITH COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TIMING IS STILL
UNCERTAIN...BUT THE MODELS CONTINUE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE
TOTAL AMT BETWEEN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND SAT MORNING.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
